Hello football fans and Parlay Buddies! I’m here to give you my personal take on the 2022 NFL Season’s Week 3 spreads! Make sure you watch the Parlay Buddy Show for your weekly premium picks on www.parlaybuddy.com. For more NFL week 3 content, you can also check out the Pick’em Wars Podcast with Luke and Corey, available on all the major platforms including Apple, Google, and Spotify.
-5 PIT v CLE
Cleveland has lost to the Steelers the last two times they faced off, albeit, that was against a soon to retire Ben Roethlisberger. Their meetings tend to be closer scoring affairs, usually finishing with a difference of less than five points. So far this season, the Browns have had a generally rough time, getting a two point win over the Panthers in the first week, and losing by a point to the NY Jets in week 2. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, had an exciting win over the Bengals in week 1, while losing by three to the Patriots last week. Unfortunately that pretty much evens them out as far as I’m concerned. I don’t trust a five point spread, look to the Steelers to get it by 4 or less.
-6.5 KC v IND
As much as I hate to have to say this, Having the most popular, and arguably most talented RB in the league in Jonathan Taylor amounts to pretty much nothing when you have Matt Ryan absolutely crapping the bed each week, and a defense that seems to have no coordination. Coaching is as much to blame as anything else in these early season woes for what is, on paper, a formidable group of players in the Colts. Mahommes has nothing to prove as the Chiefs have managed to rout both the Cardinals and the Chargers on a short first two weeks (Thurs-Sun). With a full week’s rest this week, barring some miraculous realization of talent in the Colts locker room, the Chiefs should easily cover the spread.
-3 BAL v NE
While both teams have lost to the Dolphins so far this season, there are differences in both the circumstances, and the teams themselves that lead me to my conclusion. First of all, even in their win against the Steelers last week, Mac Jones and the patriots offense did not look good. They beat the Steelers by 3 without scoring a single point in the 4th quarter, and to be frank, were saved only by their defense keeping that Steelers offense from capitalizing on any red zone opportunities. In stark contrast, The Ravens offense, in their 4 point loss to the Dolphins, performed very well, with Lamar Jackson getting 86 Rushing Yards 318 Passing Yards and 3 TDs while avoiding the sack entirely. After facing one of the best defenses in the league with Miami, and still scoring a total of 38 points, I just can’t see NE getting anywhere close to three points away from the Ravens.
HOU v CHI -2.5
I believe the only reason that Chicago is favored in this matchup is their rain soaked win over the 49ers in week one. A practically weaponless Aaron Rodgers handed Chicago an utterly humiliating defeat on SNF this week, and I just cannot overlook that situation. Meanwhile, the Texans held the Colts to a tie in week 1, and their defense allowed only 16 points in their loss to the Broncos week 2. That same defense should keep the Bears offense off their balance while the Texans actually win this game, or at the very least, break that 2.5 point differential.
-2 LVR v TEN
It may have been three years (2019), but the Raiders have won their last three against the Titans. Both teams have started 0-2 despite speculation that they would be strong contenders opening up the season. While the Titans expectedly lost hard to the powerhouse Buffalo Bills, the Raiders took a rather jolting overtime loss to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in a near miraculous comeback. All in all, I see the Raiders coming in with a chip on their shoulder, looking to punish anyone in their way to make up for that OT loss. Tennessee, on the other hand, faced down two 2 and 0 teams in the NYG and the Bills, and should be fired up and ready for a knock down, drag out. This game should be close and I’ve got to call this for the Raiders, they should be angry enough, and they have the weapons.
-5.5 BUF v MIA
Both of these teams look good all around, but one definitely stands out as the alpha in this league. You cannot discount the Buffalo Bills, they have dominated the first two games in outstanding fashion, taking out Stafford and the Champion Rams in their first game, and destroying the Titans in their second. While Miami’s offense proved they can last in an all out war with Baltimore last week, while the defense showed some grit, but ultimately allowed 38 points. In the end, I see Josh Allen and the Bills winning this one, but not by 5.5 points outright. This should be another gritty points war where the spread gets absolutely blown.
DET v MIN -5.5
This spread was decided by a person who doesn’t watch football, let alone, watched the first two weeks on Lions and Vikings football. The Vikings started the season in a 23-7 win over Green Bay, who started with a weakened offense, and a defense that didn’t do much to contain the Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins equation. Their second week, they faced the Eagles, who trounced them 24-7. Funny that, just a week earlier, the Lions faced the very same Eagles, and lost 38-35, giving the eagles almost as good as they got. In their 9 point win over Washington last week, the Lions showed some true fight, and while the Commanders aren’t exactly a playoff level team, they provided what the Lions haven’t had in a long time, MOMENTUM. This spread shouldn’t have a chance against a newly energized Lions team, who are poised to take on a Vikings team that couldn’t even muster a quarter of the points that Detroit did against the Eagles.
-5 CIN v NYJ
In just two games, star QB Joe Burrow has been on the business end of thirteen sacks. This is not a big game hangover, it’s a dereliction of duty to protect your quarterback. You can bet the Bengals locker room has been ringing with this exact sentiment for the past week. Now the Jets, they beat the Bengals last season, and that has to be part of what spurred their Super Bowl run. These 13 sacks, I believe, will have had the same effect, well, that and the fact that the Jets have had the worst time trying to stop the run, and to get to the QB in the first two games this season. The Jets got lucky against a middle to low end Browns last week, don’t expect a replay.
-5 PHI v WAS
This is coming from a total Lions fan, Washington lost to the lions last week, Philadelphia beat the Lions (barely) in week 1. This one is a no brainer to me, the Eagles are looking solid so far this season and the Commanders (ugh) are not. Yes, Carson Wentz has back to back 300+ yard games, but they were against the Jaguars and the Lions. While Detroit is on a serious come up, their roster is still coming together, while the Eagles are pretty solid in general. Look to Philadelphia to put on a similar performance to last week’s destruction of the Vikings.
-3 NO v CAR
What can I say about this game? We have Jameis Winston insisting that playing with fractures in his back is not affecting his level of play. We have a Baker Mayfield that just can’t get in stride. NO defense came up big in the first half against Tom Brady last week, but ended up giving up a 10 point deficit because, well, Tom Brady. Carolina, on the other hand, has simply failed to impress in the first two games of the season, and I think that streak will continue this week. A 3 point win is more than doable for the Saints.
JAC v LAC -7
As improved as they may be, the Jaguars are still the Jaguars. They’ll pull of a victory here and there, but in the end, we’re not seeing them taking a proactive role on the road to the playoffs anytime soon. Provided Justin Herbert (ribs) can still play after that particularly nasty shot he took against KC last week, this should be a no brainer.
Los Angeles Chargers
GB v TB -2.5
There’s a very good reason this spread is so close. Tom Brady struggled in the first half last week against the Saints as a result of their defensive efforts, and Green Bay’s defense is arguably at or above that level. However, with a lack of weapons, Aaron Rogers faces diminished returns, any reasonable QB SHOULD have the ability to beat the Bears by more than 20 (I’m looking at you 49ers). So what we’ll see here is pretty much classic Rogers v Brady, both are missing their #1 target from past years, both are nearing retirement and looking for that glory one more time. Unfortunately for Aaron Rogers, I just don’t see him having enough protection to pull of the win.
-4 LAR v ARI
Sean McVay, the youngest head coach in the history of the NFL, has led the Rams to 10 wins out the total 11 games against the Cardinals that he’s presided over. That is nothing to laugh about, and honestly, is a pretty good metric for this game. Kyler Murray pulled of a miracle last week in overtime, and he has the ability, but I just don’t see lightning striking two weeks in a row.
Los Angeles Rams
ATL v SEA -2
What’s more impressive? That the Seahawks defeated a newly minted Broncos team in week 1? Or that the Falcons mounted an almost comeback against returning champs, the Rams last week? I say the latter, but there are other factors to consider here such as the Falcons losing both of their first two games by a total of five points, giving up five turnovers. Seattle is no stranger to turnovers this season either, but with both teams struggling to gain their footing, I have to give it to the home team.
-1 SF v DEN
With Trey Lance most likely out for the season after that gruesome ankle injury, the 49ers are LUCKY to still have Jimmy Garoppolo to fill in at the role of QB. You’ve got a SF team that is all too familiar with Denver QB Russell Wilson, who still hasn’t hit a stride with his new digs. With a spread of 1, my money is on Jimmy G showing everybody how to helm a team like the niners, and with that scrappy defense, this one should be a lock.
DAL v NYG -3
What we saw last week was a Cooper Rush who stepped nearly seamlessly into the QB role and took a decisive win at home. What we will see this week, is if he can take that show on the road against a NY team that is on fire, looking very good to open the season, and hoping to take their streak to 3 straight wins. Now, the Cowboys have a long history of beating the Giants, but this is a new season. So, the answer to the Cooper Rush question? Yes, I believe he will show up, show out, and take down a NY team that is mid-stride.
The following is the opinion of Parlay Buddy Show co-host Corey Nufer and is not necessarily the opinion of Parlay Buddy, its administrators, or its owners. Please make sure to bet responsibly.